Dare to write it down, dare to admit when wrong. Time will tell.
Flying cars will come, but won't eliminate cars. Short trips stay on the ground; premium long-haul goes airborne — stratification, not replacement.
Reasoning
- Flying cars solve congestion, not commuting necessity
- Airspace management is far more complex than ground traffic
- Historical parallel: helicopters remain luxury 80 years after invention
A widely-recognized AGI (capable of most human cognitive work) will emerge before 2030, but there will be no single 'AGI moment' — recognition will be gradual
Pending · Confidence: 70% · Verify by: 2030-12-31 · 2026-10-18
Reasoning
- Model reasoning doubles yearly, still on the steep curve
- The AGI definition itself drifts — the bar keeps rising
- Historical parallel: no single moment for internet or smartphones either
Within 5 years of AGI emergence, society will not see mass unemployment collapse, but an explosion of 'AI collaboration roles' — new job types will outnumber displaced ones
Pending · Confidence: 60% · Verify by: 2035-12-31 · 2026-10-18
Reasoning
- Steam, electricity, computers each created more jobs than destroyed
- AI replaces tasks, not whole occupations
- Humans will pay premium for warmth: doctors, teachers, caregivers
The first ASI (superintelligence) will not be built by a single company or nation alone, but will emerge from distributed collaboration of open-source models and global compute networks
Pending · Confidence: 55% · Verify by: 2040-12-31 · 2026-10-18
Reasoning
- Closed-source lead shrinking to 6-12 months
- Compute democratization via cloud and edge
- No single org can monopolize all breakthrough directions
The human-AI relationship will evolve from 'tool use' to 'cognitive symbiosis' — by 2035, most knowledge workers won't clearly distinguish which ideas were their own vs AI-assisted
Pending · Confidence: 75% · Verify by: 2035-12-31 · 2026-10-18
Reasoning
- Already happening: devs can't tell which lines Copilot wrote
- AI assistants deeply integrated into workflows
- The definition of originality itself will be rewritten
Driving will neither vanish nor fully democratize, but bifurcate: a few buy luxury mementos (the Roadster path), while most keep driving as an ordinary hobby (used ICE cars, track days).
Reasoning
- Self-driving tech is advancing fast, but regulation lags 5+ years
- Driving is shifting from skill to identity symbol, like mechanical vs smart watches
- The $250K deposit itself is a filtering mechanism