Bitcoin Below $80,000: Will It Dip to $72,500 in November?

Bitcoin is starting November in a place it has not liked: below $80,000, with the buyers who were supposed to defend that level suddenly quiet. It traded around $78,500 on the morning of November 2, Hong Kong time, up about 1% on the day but still below the psychological line it lost last week. The question for the rest of the month is not whether Bitcoin can bounce — it bounces all the time — but whether the floor underneath this bounce holds. I think there is a real chance it does not, and that the next leg down reaches $72,500.

The damage from October is still fresh. Bitcoin fell from near $80,000 on October 29 to about $76,700 on October 30, and touched a low near $76,300 that Friday, as crypto markets reacted to the reported $6.3 billion Binance security breach and a wave of leveraged liquidations. The weekend brought a modest recovery, back toward $78,000, but the structure of that recovery is what worries me. It looks like stabilization, not strength: a contained range, thin conviction, and the same $80,000 ceiling overhead that capped October.

The institutional evidence points the same way, and it is unusually concrete. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in net outflows in a single session on October 30, according to Farside-tracked data, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $233.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC for another $201 million. October as a whole ended with about $516 million in net ETF withdrawals, reversing roughly $2.65 billion of inflows in September. That is a rotation, not a blip: the buyers who carried Bitcoin through September stepped back in October, and they have not yet returned.

The technical picture gives that rotation a specific address. Analysts tracking the daily chart put a major demand zone at $75,000 to $78,000, with an immediate defence at $74,900 to $76,300, and note that a sustained break below $75,000 would expose the rising lower boundary of the channel around $72,000 to $73,000. There is also a quieter on-chain warning: the decline has brought the price close to the average cost basis of coins held for one to three months, roughly $76,000 to $76,500, so the most recent buyers are now near break-even. Holders at break-even are the most likely sellers if the price slips again, which is how a demand zone fails in stages rather than all at once.

Prediction markets, for reference, price this almost exactly as a coin flip. On Polymarket's November price ladder, checked on the morning of November 2, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 during the month stood at 81.5%, reaching $85,000 at 43.5%, dipping to $75,000 at 65.5%, dipping to $72,500 at 46.5%, and dipping to $70,000 at 30.5%. Read together, that ladder says the market expects a wide November, not a calm one: a trip back above $80,000 is likely, and so is a trip down through $75,000. My call sits inside that range rather than outside it. I am not predicting a crash. I am predicting that one more bout of selling, of the kind October already delivered twice, carries the price through a fragile demand zone to a level the market itself rates as roughly even money.

There is a genuine case against my call, and it deserves to be stated plainly. CryptoQuant's CEO highlighted that Bitcoin's Coinbase premium — the gap between its dollar price on Coinbase and its USDT price on Binance — has fallen to a four-year low of about minus 0.2%, a level last seen in November 2022 after the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin was approaching a market bottom. His reading was that sentiment is bearish enough to be bullish. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, at 30, sits in Fear territory, which has also marked turning points before. And the weekend's stabilization near $78,000, after Friday's low, shows buyers are still present at these levels. If institutions return when United States markets reopen on Monday and ETF flows turn positive again, the path back above $80,000, and then toward $82,000 to $83,000, is short and well marked.

That is why I put this at 45%, not higher. The bearish evidence — ETF outflows, a broken $80,000 level, a demand zone whose holders are near break-even, and a risk-off mood across markets that has already put the Nasdaq into its third correction of the year — is stronger than the bullish evidence, but only just. A single strong week of ETF inflows would change my mind, because it would mean the September buyers are back. Until that happens, the burden of proof sits with the bounce, not with the breakdown. November will test whether $75,000 to $78,000 is a floor or a ledge, and I think the ledge gives way at least once, to $72,500, before the month ends.